It has been thirteen years since all three promoted teams suffered relegation from the Premier League in the first season when Bolton, Barnsley and Crystal Palace all went down. It is therefore not just possible that one or two out of Queens Park Rangers, Norwich City and Swansea City, will stay up but likely. The question now is then out of the three who has the best chance? QPR have the advantage of the big bankroll, but with noises from Loftus Road suggesting they will not be spending big, backed up by Swansea, themselves, agreeing a fee for Watford striker Danny Graham, someone QPR also bid for. With Paul Lambert working miracles at Norwich only a fool would write them off now, but after back to back promotions, it will perhaps take another miracle to keep them up. The team who has the best grounding to surprise the Premier League, in my eyes, is Swansea.
Swansea have combined two qualities seen at Norwich and QPR, team spirit and quality, in a way the two other promoted teams maybe have not, which will be the basis of a successful campaign next season. Swansea work tirelessly, even in attacking positions, whilst Scott Sinclair, Darren Pratley and Ashley Williams provide the team with a core of fantastic individuals, also including potential surprise package Steven Dobbie whose skill and awareness is beyond Championship level. QPR have undoubtedly had the best individual in Adel Taarabt, but he has often been criticised for being luxury player whose work rate is questionable. Work rate cannot be an issue in a player who has had as good a season as him, but his style of play will test the whole clubs dynamic next season. Ball retention in high areas where midfielders and defenders are committed will be important for these three teams and Taarabt’s tendency to lose it here could be costly on and off the field.
Blackpool have become a bench mark for ‘how to do well in the Premier League without big names’ after many excellent results, overachieving in a season in which they were picked out as the new Derby. The attacking flair with which they played was the basis of this success but they did ultimately suffer relegation. Two lessons can be learnt from this for Norwich, QPR and Swansea. Without goals it will be impossible to stay up, but if defensive blunders plague your season it will also be likely to end in relegation. Swansea have been compared to Barcelona in some quarters so a measured flair relying on a forward three, which have been in the form of their careers can fit the bill in the attacking half of the deal. Graham will be hoping to continue where Fabio Borini left-off in that respect, but he has also had his best season like Nathan Dyer and Sinclair. Swansea’s offering, which in fact is more Barcelona-esque, in defence could prove to be the difference. In Williams they have a defender who looks like he could slot into many Premier League teams already, along with the very capable Alan Tate. This team however does not just defend with their defenders, the closest they come to the Catalan giants. They know the value of the ball, keeping it well and pressing for it high up the pitch. The defensive work of the midfield and forwards means they minimise vulnerability from open play.
For Swansea though there are areas which could leave them exposed to relegation if left unaddressed. The susceptibility from teams breaking will be reduced, as it will be impossible to recreate the 61% possession they achieved this year, the best in the Football League. But three other areas, all relating to size, could cost the Welsh side. Defensive abilities from corners has proved problematic throughout the season and set the ball rolling for Reading’s comeback in the playoff final. The small side will benefit from more height, but also much better organisation at set-pieces. Stoke, Bolton and Blackburn would be the obvious teams who could exploit this weakness, but most Premier League teams recognise the massive advantage these can make over a season. If this vulnerability is exposed in the early stages of the campaign it is likely to worsen as more teams look to exploit it and as morale is decreased.
This lack of height and strength does not only affect set pieces. As many Premier League sides use athleticism as a formula to win, it is possible the current Swansea midfield could suffer when attempting to keep possession of the ball, a large part of their game. When Swansea are pressed and harried themselves, such as in the loss to Derby this season, matches have been very difficult. .
Injuries, suspensions and the topical issue of fatigue will leave them without first team players for periods of the coming season and there are questions about the squad players, particularly in defence. Garry Monk has been a great servant to the club and must be extremely proud of the job done so far, but perhaps his experience will be better used on the training ground as opposed to the pitch. Jimmy Kebe highlighted the weaknesses of Swansea’s defensive cover in wide areas, while Monk had his own problems against Shane Long, in the absence of Neil Taylor. Premier League teams will not have as much mercy as Kebe’s poor crossing or Long’s uncharacteristic lack of clinical finishing, so cover in these areas will be more than useful, particularly as Taylor himself may be playing his football for Newcastle next season.
All this said, the excitement of the new season for these teams will be nothing compared to what they will potentially add to it: two great young managers, with an old head never far from drama; fearless attacking football, with a defence to match and no doubt another gripping end to the season. If lessons are to be learnt from previous relegations and performances Swansea will need height and strength in new squad players whilst keeping the team camaraderie and work rate.
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